Will Kevin McCarthy retire from Congress this week?

Last Friday evening, as I prepared to go to a birthday party, I received a suspicious message.

It was a tip about Kevin McCarthy. Ever since his Oct. 3 ouster as speaker of the House, politicos have whispered about the Californian’s next move.

Will McCarthy, 58, stay in Washington as a lawmaker or a lobbyist? Will he retire to Bakersfield, his hometown?

This uncertainty has taken up much of my free time as I, The Times’ congressional reporter, try to chase every tip I get on his retirement, no matter how bogus. The tip I received that Friday evening was a dead end. And days later, I still don’t know what’s next for McCarthy. But we could all know more soon.

Hello, my name is Erin B. Logan. I cover Congress for the L.A. Times. Today, we are going to discuss McCarthy’s potential future.

Why would he leave?

Now that he’s no longer speaker, it’s unclear what is left for McCarthy in the House. Last election cycle, the stars finally aligned for him when his party reclaimed control of the lower chamber.

The GOP’s slim majority, though, led to an embarrassing fight for the speaker’s gavel in January. After 15 tries, his party finally elected him to the speaker’s chair. But the honeymoon quickly ended after McCarthy repeatedly relied on bipartisanship to pass essential bills, leading to the Oct. 3 ouster.

Since then, McCarthy’s role — and his influence over the party — has shrunk. Some staffers and close allies are deserting McCarthy’s once-robust operation, leaving open the question of whether his retirement is looming.

McCarthy’s longtime right-hand Rep. Patrick T. McHenry (R-N.C.), who served as interim speaker until the party settled on Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) as its new leader, said Tuesday he would not seek reelection, only fueling speculation McCarthy would also depart.

What’s next for Kevin?

House Republicans plan to throw McCarthy a party on Dec. 13, one day before lawmakers are scheduled to leave Washington for the holidays. The three-hour reception is to honor McCarthy for his “tireless work in support” of campaign matters and for “and delivering our House majority,” according to Politico. Still, it’s unclear whether this is a party lauding McCarthy’s career or his likely reelection to Washington.

It is clear, though, that McCarthy is openly unhappy with some of his colleagues. Last month, Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett, who voted to oust the Californian, accused McCarthy of elbowing him in a Capitol Hill hallway. McCarthy denied the charge, though a reporter present at the exchange backed Burchett’s account.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin) said this week the exchange was a sign that McCarthy’s days on Capitol Hill are numbered.

“No way [McCarthy] stays,” Swalwell said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “A guy who kidney punches his colleagues from behind is too afraid to serve out a full term with them. I bet he’s gone by end of year. What say you?”

McCarthy faces a natural deadline this week: The last day to file for reelection in California is Friday. (He could always file and then opt to quit later, however.) Will he stay or will he go? For now, only McCarthy can answer that question.

The latest from the campaign trail

— President Biden has forgone campaigning in New Hampshire, but top Democrats’ actions in recent weeks — and Biden’s planned visit to neighboring Boston on Tuesday — suggest he is still eager to avoid embarrassment in what’s traditionally been the country’s first presidential primary, Times staff writers Courtney Subramanian and Seema Mehta reported.

— Gov. Gavin Newsom wanted viewers of his Thursday evening Fox News debate with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to know two things: He’s not running for president — at least not in 2024 — and he’s all in for Biden, Times writer Faith E. Pinho reported.

— North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum ended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination Monday despite a stronger-than-expected showing fueled by a gift-card-for-campaign-donation gimmick that helped get him on the debate stage, the Associated Press reported.

The view from Washington

— Vice President Kamala Harris set a record Tuesday that underscored the closely divided nature of modern politics, casting her 32nd tie-breaking vote in the Senate, the most in the chamber’s history, Times writer Noah Bierman reported.

— McCarthy and House Speaker Johnson have each spoken publicly about becoming born- again Christians and the role that Jesus plays in their lives, Times writer Faith E. Pinho reported. But while McCarthy is more of a political animal than a crusader for social conservatism, Johnson’s social conservatism has always been central to his career.

— The Supreme Court justices sounded Monday as if they will uphold a huge bankruptcy deal that includes $6 billion from the Sackler family to help the nation and tens of thousands of victims recover from the opioid crisis, Times writer David G. Savage reported.

— Sen. Tommy Tuberville said Tuesday that he’s ending his blockade of hundreds of military promotions, the Associated Press reported.

— George Santos, the New York Republican under felony indictment in connection with fraud, money laundering and other crimes, was expelled from the House on Friday, becoming only the sixth lawmaker ever forcibly removed from the chamber, Times writer Erin B. Logan reported.

The view from California

— Siaka Massaquoi, first vice chair of the L.A. County Republican Party, was arrested Thursday by FBI agents on charges related to entering the U.S. Capitol during the riot on Jan. 6, 2021, according to news reports and party officials, Times writer Alexandra E. Petri reported.

— Los Angeles city taxpayer costs to rescue the failed nonprofit Skid Row Housing Trust are now expected to approach $40 million, with officials warning more dollars will be needed in mid-2024, Times writer Liam Dillon reported.

— Edgar Sargsyan, an admitted L.A. con artist who rubbed elbows with powerful politicians and presented himself as the right hand of a powerful Armenian crime figure, was sentenced to six months in prison Monday after spending years testifying against his former mentor and several corrupt law enforcement officials, Times writers James Queally and Matthew Ormseth reported.

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